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The extreme event statistics plays a very important role in the theory and practice of time series analysis. The reassembly of classical theoretical results is often undermined by non-stationarity a...
Abstract: We introduce closed-form transition density expansions for multivariate affine jump-diffusion processes. The expansions rely on a general approximation theory which we develop in weighted Hi...
A Bayesian estimation of a GARCH model is performed for US Dollar/Japanese Yen exchange rate by the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm with a proposal density given by the adaptive construction scheme. In ...
Stochastic volatility modelling of nancial processes has become increasingly popular. The proposed models usually contain a stationary volatility process. We will motivate and review several nonparam...
The stochastic exponential Zt = exp{Mt − M0 − (1/2)hM,Mit} of a continuous local martingale M is itself a continuous local martingale. We give a necessary and sufficient condition for the ...
Probabilistic representations of the density function of the asset price and of vanilla options in linear stochastic volatility models。
We perform the Bayesian inference of a GARCH model by the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm with an adaptive proposal density. The adaptive proposal density is assumed to be the Student’s t-distribution a...
It has been documented that random walk outperforms most economic structural and time series models in out-of-sample forecasts of the conditional mean dynamics of exchange rates. In this paper, we stu...
It has been documented that random walk outperforms most economic structural and time series models in out-of-sample forecasts of the conditional mean dynamics of exchange rates.

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